| 亞化咨詢：中國地煉行業(yè)2016年開始進入景氣周期將增加制氫需求
2016-3-1
亞化咨詢認為，在地煉行業(yè)逐步獲得進口原油使用權和原油進口權，國際油價持續(xù)低迷使國際原油貿易進入買方市場，以及國內獨有的成品油定價機制三大因素的推動下，中國地煉行業(yè)將從2016年開始進入景氣周期，并為制氫行業(yè)帶來新的市場機遇。
公開信息顯示，2016年1月國內地煉行業(yè)維持高開工率。位于山東省東部的39家地煉企業(yè)1月份生產了505萬噸汽油和柴油，相比去年大幅增加。亞化咨詢認為，以下三大因素促使中國地煉行業(yè)從2016年開始進入景氣周期。
1.地煉行業(yè)逐步獲得進口原油使用權和原油進口權(原油進口“雙權”)。2.國際油價持續(xù)低迷，國際原油貿易進入買方市場。3.國內獨有的成品油定價機制。
從2015年開始，國家主管部門逐步放開進口原油使用權和原油進口權。2015年，地煉行業(yè)有13家獲得進口原油使用配額、6家獲得原油非國營貿易進口資質。2016年初，原油進口“雙權”的放開繼續(xù)推進，多家地煉企業(yè)提交了配額申請，等待審批。2016年2月29日，中國16家地方煉油企業(yè)宣布聯合成立石油采購聯盟，抱團進入國際原油貿易市場。
由于全球供需失衡，國際油價從2014下半年開始下跌，到2016年初已經跌至30美元/桶區(qū)間，國際原油貿易已進入買方市場。原油價格低迷不僅大大降低了地煉企業(yè)的原料成本，而且地煉行業(yè)掌握了原料選擇的主動權，可以提高煉油原料的質量。
此外，因國內獨有的成品油定價機制，在原油價格低于40美元/桶時，煉油行業(yè)利潤豐厚。下面分別以2015年第四季度和2016年1月份的進口原油為原料，計算煉油并批發(fā)出售汽油的利潤空間。
根據海關數據，2015年第四季度，中國進口原油8688萬噸，總金額295億美元，平均339.7美元/噸。人民幣對美元匯率按照6.3估算，進口價格平均為2140元/噸。公開信息顯示，2016年1月，中國進口原油2669.1萬噸，同比減少4.6%；進口均價為每噸1819.4元，同比下跌36.4%。
國家發(fā)改委最近一次調整成品油價格是2016年1月13日，調整后供交通、民航等專項用戶汽、柴油標準品最高供應價格每噸分別為6365元和5420元。(汽油第四、第五階段標準品分別為90號和89號汽油，價格包含消費稅、增值稅以及城建稅和教育費附加)。如果以此價格作為成品油出廠價估算，可以計算目前汽油標準品不含稅費的批發(fā)價格為2956元/噸。
根據亞化咨詢煉油成本模型，可以計算分別以2015年第四季度的進口原油，和2016年1月份的進口原油為原料，生產汽油并以批發(fā)價格銷售，每噸汽油的(所得稅前)利潤分別為880元/噸和1146元/噸。在當前能源化工行業(yè)普遍不景氣的大環(huán)境下利潤可觀。對于擁有零售渠道的大型地煉企業(yè)，還可以進一步獲取零售環(huán)節(jié)的利潤。
綜上所述，在多重利好的推動下，中國地煉行業(yè)2016年開始進入景氣周期。公開信息顯示，成達新能源、科力達、華聯石化、海化石化、大連恒力石化、河南豐利石化、亞通石化、墾利石化等企業(yè)在2016年有新建或擴建煉油產能的計劃。
氫氣是煉油行業(yè)的重要原料，深度加氫脫硫是生產低硫清潔油品的重要手段。中國地煉行業(yè)的產能擴張與國家對清潔油品標準的不斷升級，將增加煉油行業(yè)的制氫需求。亞化咨詢認為，大規(guī)模的煤制氫，以及在低油價背景下的渣油氣化制氫，因其成本優(yōu)勢，并可以聯產蒸汽和電力，將成為未來煉廠補充氫源的主要發(fā)展方向。
第三屆中國制氫與先進煤氣化技術研討會將于2016年3月17日在山東濟南召開。會議將探討全球與中國煉油行業(yè)氫氣需求，煉廠不同制氫方案的經濟性比較，先進煤氣化技術進展與應用，氫氣分離提純工藝路線，中小規(guī)模制氫解決方案，化工園區(qū)氫氣與合成氣供應成功經驗，新能源制氫的可行性分析等。
由亞化咨詢主辦的第二屆中國油品升級技術經濟研討會，以及首屆中國煉化一體化研討會將于2016年6月中旬在廈門召開。屆時政府產業(yè)規(guī)劃部門，國際煉化企業(yè)，煉化央企以及地方煉油企業(yè)等將集聚一堂，探討國家產業(yè)政策對煉廠油品升級進程的影響，以及十三五期間新建煉化一體化項目發(fā)展規(guī)劃情況。
對現代煤化工和高端石化行業(yè)的投資者和參與者而言，了解和判斷國家政策發(fā)展及其走勢；新型煤化工和高端石化項目的技術經濟可行性；示范項目建設進度和運行進展；未來產能增長趨勢和市場需求等；并以此作為公司決策的依據是非常重要的。為了給行業(yè)和企業(yè)決策者提供獨立的、客觀的分析評論和參考意見，作為專注于能源化工新興領域的行業(yè)研究機構，亞化咨詢推出了《中國現代煤化工和高端石化年度系列報告2016》。
欲知更多詳情請致電：021-50329633-116或18019146895胡經理
ASIACHEM: High Prosperity Cycle of Chinese Local Refinery Industry starting from 2016 is expected to Bring up Hydrogen Demand
2016-3-1
ASIACHEM believes in that, under the push of three factors, i.e. gradual grant of right to use imported oil and to direct import oil to local refineries, a buyer market caused by price volatility in international crude oil trade, and the unique Chinese refined oil product pricing mechanism, Chinese local refinery industry will enter high prosperity cycle starting from 2016, and bring up new market opportunity for hydrogen industry.
As shown by public data, local refineries maintained high operating rate in Jan 2016. 39 local refineries, concentrating in eastern part of Shandong Province, outputted in total 5.05Mt of gasoline and diesel fuel, a jumping increase over the last year. ASIACHEM believes in that, following three major factors are driving the industry entry of a high prosperity cycle starting from 2016.
1. Gradual grant of right to use imported oil and to direct import oil to local refineries (dual right for crude oil import); 2. A buyer market caused by price volatility in international crude oil trade; and 3. The unique Chinese refined oil product pricing mechanism.
Starting from 2015, state authority gradually deregulated on the use of import oil and oil import. In 2015, 13 local refineries were granted with imported oil use quota, and 6 qualified as non-state owned oil importers. At the beginning of 2016, deregulation on oil import“dual right”was further pressed forward as more local refineries submitted quota application waiting for approval. On 29th Feb. 2016, 16 Chinese local refineries announced have jointly established an oil procurement alliance to enter the international crude oil trading market by clannishness.
Owing to global market imbalance, oil price started a falling trend in H2 2014, and dropped down to a band around USD30/bbl at the beginning of this year, driving the market into buyer dominance. Crude price volatility not only reduced raw cost for local refineries, but also passed the initiative power of crude selection to the refineries for seeking after better raw material quality.
In addition, the unique Chinese refined oil pricing mechanism will result in broad profit margin for refiners at crude price level below USD40/bbl. Shown below are the calculations of crude processing/gasoline wholesale profit margin based on Q4 2015 and Jan 2016 imported crude price respectively.
According to Chinese Custom data, the country imported 86.88Mt of crude at the price of USD29.5bn in total, or averaged on USD339.7/t. The import price converted to CNY2140/t assuming an exchange rate of 6.3. Also shown by public data, China imported 26.691Mt of crude in Jan 2016, 4.6% less than the first month last year; averaged import price was CNY1819.4/t, a dramatic fall of 36.4% comparing to same period 2015.
Last time NDRC regulating refined oil price was on Jan 13th 2016, setting the ceiling prices of gasoline and diesel fuel for traffic, aviation and other specific users at CNY6365/t and 5420/t respectively (gasoline prices set for CN IV #90 and CN V #89, consumption tax, VAT, urban construction levy and education surcharge included in both). Assuming these for factory gate price estimate, wholesale price of regular gasoline, taxes excluded, would become CNY2956/t.
Using ASIACHEM developed refinery cost model, and taking Q4 2015/Jan 2016 crude import cost as well as gasoline wholesale price as bases for calculation, profit per ton of gasoline production (before income tax) would be CNY880 and CNY1146 respectively. This is quite encouraging against the generally shaded environment of current energy chemical industry, while additional retail profit can be accessed by bigger local refineries of own distribution channel.
In short, the above said multiple favorable factors will drive Chinese local refinery industry into a high prosperity cycle starting from 2016. Media have reported a number of new construction and/or expansion projects in this year, planned respectively by Chengda Novel Energy, Kelida, Hualian Petrochemical, Haihua Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli Petrochemical, Henan Fengli Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, and Kenli Petrochemical, etc.
Hydrogen is a key feedstock to oil refining industry, and deep hydro-desulfurization is a principal mean for low-sulfur cleaner oil product formulation. Capacity expansion of Chinese local refinery industry and sustained upgrading of cleaner motor fuel standard will for sure increase hydrogen demand by the industry. ASIACHEM predicts that large scale coal to hydrogen process, as well as residue gasification to hydrogen process (under low crude oil price), by their cost advantage and steam/electricity cogeneration options, will become a main developing orientation for future refinery to secure hydrogen supply.
The 3rd China H2 Production & Advanced Coal Gasification Conference will be held on Mar 17th 2016 in Jinan, Shandong, China. The conference will discuss global and China’s H2 demand in oil refining industry, economical comparison of refineries’different H2 production schemes, advanced coal gasification technologies updates and application, H2 separation and purification process routes, middle and small scale H2 production solutions, successful experiences of H2 and syngas supply in chemical parks, feasibility analysis of H2 production by new energy, etc.
For the modern coal chemical & advanced petrochemical investors and suppliers, understanding the national policy development and trends; modern coal chemical & advanced petrochemical technologies and economics; the updates of construction and operation of projects; and market demand and future growth potentials; and as a basis for corporate decision-making is very important.
In order to provide independent, objective industrial analysis or comments for reference of decision-makers, as the dedicated consultancy on energy & Chemicals emerging sectors, ASIACHEM has launched . Please see attached Subscription Introduction.
If you want to know more information about the upcoming conference, pls contact with 0086 21 50329699 116
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